Arsenal beware: Man City are right where they want to be in the title race – and they can still get better

Pep Guardiola remarked last month that no one wins the title in November, and Manchester City's chasing down of Arsenal in the ensuing weeks has proven him right. The Gunners might still be out in front, but despite often feeling like a team in transition, City are showing many hallmarks of their ruthless title-winning seasons while cracks are showing in their rivals' campaign.

City have won five of their six league games to accrue 15 points since Guardiola sent out his warning to Arsenal, while Mikel Arteta's side have surrendered seven. Aston Villa have been on a perfect run in that period to emerge as the third force in the title shake-up, although recent history, plus Villa's lack of strength-in-depth, suggests this will ultimately be a two-horse race between City and Arsenal. 

And even though both sides ended up taking three points at the weekend, the scorelines and contrasting manners in which they won against opponents of very different magnitude suggest that City are coming into their own just at the right time, while Arsenal are already showing signs that they are wobbling.

While City travelled to a Crystal Palace side that began the weekend in fourth place and had only lost once at Selhurst Park this season, Arsenal were at home to a Wolves team that are currently the worst in Premier League history in statistical terms. It was far from comfortable for City at Selhurst Park as the Eagles twice hit the woodwork, but by the end of the 3-0 victory it looked very easy indeed, recording the club's biggest-ever win away to Palace.

Arsenal, meanwhile, needed two own goals, including one in the 93rd minute, to scrape past Wolves. No one at City envisages anything other than another closely-run title race, and they know, as no doubt Arsenal do, that they are often much stronger in the second half of the season. And despite the problems they have had, including losing two of their first three games, Guardiola's team are now exactly where they want to be.

AFPNot losing it

City were six points behind Arsenal in early November when Guardiola was asked about the Gunners' early charge. He was highly complimentary of Arteta's side at first when he said, "In the last two or three years in terms of rebuilding a club and a team, then they are there [at the top]. It is exceptional what they are doing and did already for two or three seasons. It looks like every time it is closer and closer."

Then he sought to get into their heads: "But we are in early November and in early November no-one wins the title. You can lose it, but you cannot win it."

That last line was particularly pertinent, as City had gone into November last season in rampant form, unbeaten after dropping just four points in their first nine games. Then came the mother of all hiccups as they lost four matches in a row by an aggregate scoreline of 10-2. 

The last defeat in that sequence was at Liverpool on December 1, after which Guardiola conceded that his side had no chance of catching the Reds and raised six fingers to the baying Anfield faithful – one for each title won – to comfort himself.

AdvertisementGetty Images SportCutting six points to two

In Guardiola's first season, City survived November but had a dismal December, losing three out of their six games, including at home to eventual title winners Chelsea. The message to his team in that press conference in November was clear: Don't let Arsenal run away with it. And City have not. They have chopped a six-point deficit (which actually rose to seven by the end of the month) down to two.

Their latest run of four consecutive wins has not been without drama or concerning moments, with Phil Foden having to rescue the three points after a second-half capitulation against Leeds United before City shipped three goals at Fulham to turn a comfortable 5-1 scoreline into a twitchy 5-4. 

Back-to-back 3-0 wins over Sunderland and Palace have further boosted confidence and left City with something unexpected given their concerning start to the season. They have 34 points from their 16 games, more than in any of their previous four campaigns at the same stage of the season, including when they won the treble in 2022-23 and when they secured a historic fourth successive crown in 2024.

Getty Images SportFinishing stronger

And the bad news for Arsenal is City are nearly always stronger in the second half of the season than the first. Guardiola and his staff deliberately plan the campaign with the objective of the players being as fresh as possible for the business end, and their record in the final 19 games of each season compared to the first 19 says it all. 

City have accrued more points in the second half of the season in five of the last seven years, and on one of the two occasions they were not stronger in the back end, in 2022-23, they eased up after winning the title with three games to spare. The 2017-18 season, when City amassed a record 100 points, is an anomaly as City steamrolled their rivals from the very start. But in every other campaign bar two, they have improved markedly in the back end.

In 2018-19, they were third at the halfway stage of the season but went on to take an astonishing 54 points from a possible 57, pipping Liverpool to the title by a singe point. In the 2023-24 season, they reeled Arsenal back with a similarly ruthless run, winning 16 out of 19 games while remaining unbeaten to to accrue 51 points. The previous season they also overhauled the Gunners, winning 12 matches in a row to make up an eight-point deficit. They earned 44 points from their final 19 games, with the important caveat that they eased up in their final two matches, a draw at Brighton and defeat at Brentford. 

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GettyRecovering from 'unacceptable' start

The year before that, when City saw off Liverpool in another thrilling toe-to-toe race, they took 46 points in the second half of the season. That was admittedly one point fewer than in the first half, but it was still an astonishing haul, the third-highest under Guardiola. In the latter half of 2020-21, the first season of that record breaking cycle of four successive crowns, they took 45 points. Even last season, when City returned their lowest points total of the Guardiola era, they roared back, taking 40 points compared to 31 in the first half to finish third. City are well aware of their history of strong finishes, too.

"It’s true that our teams have always been much better in the second part of the season than the first, and hopefully it happens again this season," said Bernardo Silva last week in Madrid. "In the first month, we beat Wolves and then lost to Brighton and Spurs in performances that were not acceptable at our level. When you go to the first international break with one win and two losses, that means you’re not at the Man City level. If you look at the last two months, I would say that points-wise, it has been really good."